What Australia’s new government will do
“TONIGHT, THE Australian people have voted for change,” declared Australia’s new prime minister, Anthony Albanese, as the results of a federal election became clear. Voters have booted out their conservative coalition government of almost a decade, with a national swing against it of almost six percentage points. Though public enthusiasm for Mr Albanese, or “Albo”, is hardly gushing, it seems likely that Labor will have a slender majority in the House of Representatives. Only about a third of voters backed the party on May 21st, making it the least popular winner since Australia became a federation 120 years ago. Were it not for voters in Western Australia, enthused by the Labor state government’s strict policing of local borders for the sake of keeping covid-19 at bay, Mr Albanese’s prospects would have been dim. Still, he is now in charge. His first job will be to visit Tokyo, for meetings of the “Quad”, a loose coalition with America, India and Japan that is designed to counter Chinese influence, especially in the Indian and Pacific oceans.A new security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands has sent shockwaves through the Australian capital, Canberra. On national security, Mr Albanese pledges to be as tough as the outgoing prime minister, Scott Morrison. His party is committed to AUKUS, a defence agreement which Mr Morrison’s government signed with Britain and America last year, promising a raft of diplomatic and technical collaboration, as well as eight nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. Mr Albanese also promises that defence spending will be above 2% of GDP and he wants to boost aid to the Pacific. The new prime minister has spelled out few big plans for his government, but he will have to make good on promises to lift wages and productivity. On climate, his will be a greener government than Mr Morrison’s. He thinks he can “end the climate wars” which have helped to topple at least three Australian prime ministers. At a minimum, that means steeper cuts to emissions, of 43% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. That is more ambitious than the Liberals’ target of 26-28%, but less than scientists argue that Australia should be doing to curb global warming. The biggest losers overall were the Liberal Party and Mr Morrison. More educated city voters abandoned them in droves. Mr Morrison failed in his plan to make up for that by winning over residents of outer-suburbs. Women, particularly, turned against him and his hairy-chested brand of politics. Many were infuriated by his government’s handling of allegations of sexual misconduct, including one of rape, made last year by a young Liberal staff member against a colleague.Other voters, especially urban ones, were frustrated by official failures to tackle climate change, to make serious efforts to cut carbon emissions or wean the country off coal-mining. In some larger cities–Melbourne, Sydney and Perth–a group of independent candidates, known as the “teals”, turfed out Liberals in part by campaigning hard for stronger policies on the climate. Each of the six newly elected teals is a woman. They include two medical doctors, a former foreign correspondent and the boss of a charity. In Brisbane, the capital of Queensland, a coal mining state, the Greens made gains. By the time counting is complete, they may have four MPs nationally, up from just one (who had represented Melbourne’s hipster inner-city). In all, the size of Australia’s “crossbench”—meaning both the independents and minor parties—more than doubled, to at least 15 seats. That suggests a more influential third force in Australian politics is emerging, though the newcomers will have limited leverage if, as predicted, Mr Albanese gets a majority.The Liberals’ future is especially uncertain. The party lost some of its safest seats, and its moderate politicians. Some warn that a populist turn is now likely. “You’ll end up, I think, with a Liberal Party that looks more like the Republican Party in the United States,” said Dave Sharma, an Liberal MP in Sydney, before the election. “There is clearly a big message,” lamented Simon Birmingham, a Liberal senator. “We are losing heartland seats that have defined the party for generations.” The biggest casualty is the departing treasurer (the country’s finance minister), Josh Frydenberg, who might have been the Liberals’ next leader. He appears to have lost his wealthy Melbourne seat, Kooyong, held by the party since the 1940s. ■