Voters in Madagascar have many candidates, but little real choice
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Print edition | Middle East and Africa
Nov 8th 2018 | MORONDAVA
IF THE HEALTH of a democracy were measured only by the number of candidates contesting a presidential election, Madagascar’s would be flourishing: a total of 36 were on the island state’s ballot on November 7th. Yet politics in Madagascar, beset by corruption, is far from healthy. Voters hoping for a change from the old elite may be sorely disappointed by the outcome of a race that has been completely dominated by two former presidents.
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The most visible contender is Andry Rajoelina, who led a coup in 2009 and ruled until 2014. Morondava, a big city in south-west Madagascar, is a sea of posters and T-shirts emblazoned with Mr Rajoelina’s face and sporting his signature bright orange colours. Lorries blaring out his campaign messages are ubiquitous.
Even with such a well-funded campaign, Mr Rajoelina faces stiff competition from Marc Ravalomanana, the president he overthrew in 2009 and who is fondly remembered for a tenure marked by economic growth and investment. The years that followed the coup, by contrast, were catastrophic: the economy dived and poverty shot up. About three-quarters of the population live on less than $1.90 a day.
The results of the first round will not be announced until later this month. But Messrs Rajoelina and Ravalomanana seem likely to face each other in a run-off on December 19th. Hery Rajaonarimampianina, the incumbent, does not worry them. He lacks the popular appeal of his rivals and has been criticised for failing to revive the economy since he took elected office in 2014. Almost all the other candidates, nicknamed les zéros virgule, or “nought point”, after the results they are likely to get, ran with no prospect of winning. They hoped instead to negotiate plum positions in the next administration.
The outcome of the second round is harder to predict. Mr Rajoelina, who is 44 and once worked as a disc jockey, is popular with the young and with women. “I’m going to vote for Rajoelina because he is handsome, cute and young,” says an enthusiastic female voter. But many urbanites deride his madcap schemes, complete with glossy artists’ impressions, to rebuild the country. One proposes making Tamatave, the second-largest city, a new “Miami”.
Mr Ravalomanana may lack some of the appeal of his main rival, not to mention his lavish campaign budget, but he is seen as a safer pair of hands. One voter from Tsimafana, a village north of Morondava plagued by cattle rustlers and illegal deforestation, says he will vote for “Dada” (Mr Ravalomanana’s affectionate nickname) because the country felt safer during his term in office.
Yet few will feel safe until the run-off is over and the count is done. Madagascar has rarely enjoyed a smooth political transition. Many of its people fear that trouble is once again around the corner.