Turkey and Russia cut a deal over Syria
WITH the grim spectre of a Russian-backed assault hanging over the Syrian rebels’ last redoubt in Idlib, the province’s civilians had begun to prepare for the worst. Some had stocked crude underground shelters with pickled vegetables, even though many already struggle to find enough food to eat. Others had fashioned homemade gas-masks from cotton, charcoal and paper cups, fearing the regime would use chemical weapons.
For weeks an offensive to retake Idlib had seemed imminent. Russia had expanded its naval fleet off Syria’s coast. Regime troops had been massing at the edges of the province. Russian and Syrian aircraft had begun to bomb rebel targets and destroy hospitals. Turkey, which backs the opposition, sent tanks to its border. The UN warned that the biggest humanitarian catastrophe of the century was looming.
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For the moment, however, diplomacy has prevailed. On September 17th Turkey and Russia agreed to establish a buffer zone around Idlib to separate regime forces from the rebels. The two countries will send military police and drones to patrol a strip 14-19km wide. Rebels in this demilitarised zone will have to give up their heavy weapons by October 10th. The jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most powerful rebel faction in the province, who are linked to al-Qaeda, are to withdraw completely. Details are thin but the offensive, for now, is off.
Both countries have an interest in avoiding a full-blown assault. Turkey fears a bloody bombing campaign will drive many of the province’s 2m-3m people across its shared border, adding to the 3.5m refugees it already has. Since Russia is trying to persuade the West to pay for reconstructing Syria, backing an assault that kills thousands of civilians would undercut its argument that the Syrian regime is serious about seeking a political settlement to end the war.
Much can go wrong. Turkey has less than a month to persuade HTS to withdraw from the buffer zone. If it fails, Russia and the regime would feel justified in launching a full-scale assault. Turkey’s previous efforts to weaken HTS have yielded little. Drones from rebels in the province still harass Russia’s main air base. The HTS leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, has told his followers that surrendering their weapons is akin to treason. Turkey will send more troops to Idlib, but confronting the group head-on risks provoking terrorist attacks on its soil.
The Syrian regime may also seek to spoil the deal. It has long vowed to retake the entire country. Idlib is a tempting prize. Its fall would mark the end of the rebellion. Leaders of more moderate rebel groups in Idlib, while broadly welcoming the deal, say they fear Russia and the regime will fail to uphold their side of the bargain. They have good reason. The regime, with Russia’s blessing, has broken previous ceasefires and is busy arresting fighters in other parts of the country who had surrendered in return for amnesty.
Even if the deal holds, Russia will find it hard to marshal the competing interests of foreign powers in Syria as it tries to bring the war to a close. Hours after the Idlib deal was announced, Israel bombed a military installation in Syria. Israel has launched 200-odd strikes in the past two years to stop Iran from setting up a permanent military presence in Syria. This time, though, the target was unusually close to Russia’s main air base, Khmeimim, on the Syrian coast. Syrian air-defence batteries fired a salvo of missiles at the Israeli jets but shot down a Russian spy-plane instead, killing all 15 of its crew.
Russia’s defence ministry furiously accused Israel of acting recklessly, saying the Israeli planes had used the Russian one as a shield. Hours later, however, President Vladimir Putin sounded more conciliatory. The aircraft, he said, had been shot down in “a chain of tragic circumstances”, and not by Israel. So Russia’s “deconfliction” agreement with Israel is intact. Israel will not interfere with Russia’s campaign to rescue the Syrian regime; Russia will give Israel a more or less free rein to hit targets linked to Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hizbullah. But with jets from at least six countries—America, Britain, Israel, Russia, Syria and Turkey—in the skies above Syria, the risk of miscalculation remains dangerously high.