Suga Yoshihide emerges from the back room as Japan’s next leader
He will struggle to match the global standing of his predecessor, Abe ShinzoWHEN JAPANESE politicians pondered life after the record-breaking tenure as prime minister of Abe Shinzo, conversations revolved around a short list of potential successors. Suga Yoshihide’s name rarely came up, despite his powerful position as Mr Abe’s chief cabinet secretary (CCS), a role that combines the duties of chief of staff and main spokesperson. Mr Suga’s reputation is that of a behind-the-scenes operator, rather than a public leader. He told friends that he had no interest in the top job, preferring the shadows to the spotlight. Unlike the blue-blooded sons and grandsons of former politicians who tend to dominate Japanese politics, Mr Suga hails from a farming family in Japan’s rural north.So his election as president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 14th is remarkable. After Mr Abe abruptly resigned for health reasons on August 28th, with more than a year left in his term, Mr Suga secured the support of the party’s main factions by pledging continuity and stability at a time of crisis. He won 377 of 535 possible votes, far ahead of his two rivals: a former defence minister, Ishiba Shigeru, and a former foreign minister, Kishida Fumio, who received 68 and 89 votes respectively. (The LDP held its election according to emergency procedures, which excluded the party rank and file from voting.) Mr Suga will become prime minister following a parliamentary vote on September 16th, taking on myriad challenges: reviving an economy battered by the covid-19 pandemic; managing relations with America and China; and adapting to Japan’s greying population.His path to the prime minister’s office began in a village in Akita prefecture, where his father grew strawberries. After leaving home and moving to Tokyo, Mr Suga worked in a cardboard factory. He entered politics as the secretary for a politician in Yokohama, eventually rising through the city council to the national Diet. As Mr Abe’s loyal CCS for nearly eight years, he became known for his tenacious work-ethic and mastery at managing Japan’s bureaucracy. His morning routine became the stuff of legend at the prime minister’s office: a 5am wake-up call, a regimen of sit-ups and strolls, and a regular breakfast meeting at the Capitol Hotel opposite the Diet.His hardscrabble background has left Mr Suga with a different sort of inheritance from that of Mr Abe, the grandson of a former prime minister, who made it his mission to revise Japan’s post-war constitution. Whereas Mr Abe saw economic policy as a means to those greater political ends, for Mr Suga economic policy is the end unto itself. Akita is the most rapidly ageing prefecture in all of Japan (37% of the population is 65 or older compared with 23% in Tokyo). “Akita is the future of Japan,” says Tamura Kotaro, a former parliamentarian who is close to Mr Suga. “He knows the importance of dealing with ageing and demographics.”Throughout his career, Mr Suga has proven keen to take on structural reforms to revitalise Japan’s anaemic economy. He has favoured measures to boost productivity, encourage competition and strip away regulations. During his early years in Yokohama, he worked on the privatisation of Japan Railways, and he supported controversial efforts to privatise the Japanese postal service under Koizumi Junichiro, prime minister from 2001-06. During Mr Abe’s administration, he pushed for reforms to introduce more competition to the over-coddled Japanese agricultural sector, to bring down mobile-phone rates, and to open Japan to higher numbers of foreign workers and attract more foreign tourists. As a candidate for prime minister, he promised to continue the Abe administration’s policies of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, but also to digitise Japan’s archaic government services and to consolidate regional banks.He has shown less interest in foreign affairs, where Mr Abe shined. As CCS, Mr Suga tended to “respect the judgment of [the foreign ministry] because he realised he doesn’t have experience in foreign affairs,” says one former Japanese ambassador. As prime minister, he will struggle to attain the global standing that Mr Abe acquired during his eight-year tenure. “He may be Abe 2.0 in policy terms, but not in terms of execution on the world stage,” says Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank.He may also struggle to replicate that long tenure. Chief cabinet secretaries do not always make effective prime ministers. Pulling the levers of government and working the bureaucracy require different sets of skills from wrangling with the LDP’s factions and appealing to the public. Fukuda Yasuo, who held the record for longest-serving chief cabinet secretary before Mr Suga, flamed out in under one year during his own stint in the top job.Mr Suga does not belong to a faction himself, which leaves him vulnerable to intra-party machinations. Although party bosses are backing him now, “there might be an inside struggle” when the LDP election in September 2021 looms closer, says Miura Lully, a political scientist and head of the Yamaneko Research Institute in Tokyo. His first decision as prime minister will be whether to capitalise on his newfound support in the party and call an early election to receive a mandate from the public. It would be a bold move, but would at least show those wary of his background that he is ready to leave the shadows and embrace the limelight.Reuse this contentThe Trust Project