Nov 27th 2021WHO, AT THE time, did not see the resounding defeat in 2018 of the scandal-drenched prime minister, Najib Razak, and his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) as a watershed for Malaysia? And who, after a state election in Malacca on November 20th in which the UMNO-led coalition, Barisan Nasional, won 21 of 28 seats, does not wonder whether all the hopes for reform generated in recent years will come to naught?Listen to this storyYour browser does not support the element.Enjoy more audio and podcasts on iOS or Android.Malacca is a bellwether for southern peninsular Malaysia, the country’s political heartland. A general election due by July 2023 will probably be called next year. Not only might UMNO regain its old grip; so, even, might Mr Najib. He is appealing against his convictions for corruption. Out on bail, he has rebranded himself the people’s champion and was omnipresent in the Malacca campaign.UMNO had ruled since independence thanks to nasty identity politics pandering to the ethnic-Malay majority, which also helped enrich its business friends. In 2016, under Mr Najib, Malaysia was second only to Russia in The Economist’s crony-capitalist index. During his tenure some $4.5bn was bilked from a state investment fund, 1MDB, while the prime minister’s own bank balance rose by nearly $700m (an unrelated gift, he said).Yet for reformist Malaysians who want more racially inclusive politics and an end to all the cronyism, the victory in 2018 of a multiracial alliance, Pakatan Harapan, soon proved a giant disappointment. First came bickering over power-sharing between its two lions, the nonagenarian Mahathir Mohamad, Mr Najib’s successor as prime minister, and his protégé-turned-enemy-turned-frenemy, Anwar Ibrahim.Then came machinations within Dr Mahathir’s party that in early 2020 saw him ousted in favour of a deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, whose Perikatan Nasional cobbled together a government with elements of UMNO. It was a miserable stint, which ended in August with backroom dealings and another weak government, this time with an UMNO prime minister, Ismail Sabri Yaakob, propped up by Mr Muhyiddin’s party.As for Mr Anwar, with power eluding him, he has variously sought deals with some of UMNO’s sleaziest elements; claimed to have a majority in Parliament when he probably did not; and, in September, struck a deal offering the government support in return for a say in the budget and a promise not to call a snap election. Both sides promised not to poach members. Party-hopping “frogs” were behind Pakatan Harapan’s fall in 2020.Mr Anwar intended such moves to keep Pakatan Harapan in contention. Instead, they dismayed backers for whom Mr Anwar was once a beacon for a new, transformational politics. The final straw came in Malacca, where Pakatan Harapan welcomed exactly the kind of frog-hopping he supposedly deplored, leading to the state government’s fall and a new election. Pakatan Harapan paid the price. Many of its supporters stayed away, whereas UMNO’s long-established machine got its voters to the polls.Pakatan Harapan will also be punished in a state election in Sarawak in December, predicts James Chin of the University of Tasmania. Then attention will turn to the next general election. Mr Najib is not the only UMNO heavyweight to fancy his chances of succeeding Mr Ismail Sabri, who is not part of UMNO’s “mainstream”. But he has strong reason to wish for an early election—his convictions can much more readily be overturned under an UMNO government. Meanwhile, his political resurrection continues: his party, Mr Chin says, values Mr Najib for his political nous.Is it all over for reform? Bridget Welsh of the University of Nottingham Malaysia says that the next general election will see a sharp increase in first-time voters, owing to a lowered voting age and new, automatic voter registration. Younger Malaysians are those pushing hardest for change. As covid-19 restrictions ease, anti-corruption protests will grow.A groundswell for change exists. But for it to be channelled through Pakatan Harapan, Mr Anwar should now give up his bid of more than two decades to become prime minister. No doubt that he has personally suffered in the attempt, spending nearly ten years in prison on politically motivated charges, first under Dr Mahathir (in his UMNO days) and then under Mr Najib. And more than any other politician, he has reminded Malaysians that change is possible. But the 74-year-old is no longer the solution. Like other leaders of his generation, he is now part of the problem.Read more from Banyan, our columnist on Asia:Russia moves with a new swagger in South-East Asia (Nov 20th 2021)How the game of Go explains China’s aggression towards India (Nov 13th 2021)Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan struggle with the curse of mineral wealth (Nov 6th 2021)This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline “Oh no, it’s UMNO”