Emmanuel Macron visits Beirut to reshape Lebanon
GIVE HIM credit for the pageantry, at least. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, arrived in Lebanon on August 31st for a two-day visit, his second since the massive explosion at Beirut’s port four weeks earlier. Even his timing was symbolic, 100 years to the day since his predecessors carved Lebanon out of the French mandate in Syria. His first formal meeting was not with his counterpart, Michel Aoun, but with Fairouz, the beloved chanteuse whose haunting voice is a rare source of national unity. Only then did he make the rounds of Lebanon’s long-serving and much-loathed politicians.The caretaker prime minister, Hassan Diab, resigned six days after the explosion, which killed almost 200 people and caused billions of dollars in damage. It had taken three months to form Mr Diab’s government (which lasted barely six) and many Lebanese expected a similar delay in finding a replacement. For weeks Mr Aoun declined to hold parliamentary consultations about a new prime minister. But with the French president packing his overnight bag, Mr Aoun abruptly summoned MPs to meet on the morning of August 31st. Wags likened him to a student scrambling to finish his devoirs de vacances before papa returned.Mr Macron speaks for many when he calls for political change in Lebanon, ruled for decades by a coterie of ageing, corrupt men who deploy fear and sectarianism to stay in power. The explosion, caused by 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored improperly for years at Beirut’s port, was emblematic of the rot: dozens of officials knew about the bomb sitting in their capital; none bothered to move it. Even before the blast wrecked a chunk of the city, Lebanon looked like a failed state. Banks are insolvent. The utility company could barely provide four hours of daily electricity in July. “The objective of this visit is clearly to mark the end to a political chapter,” Mr Macron said on his arrival in Beirut.Yet the man who will lead this new beginning is hardly a break from the past. The unexpected choice for prime minister was Mustapha Adib, Lebanon’s ambassador to Germany. He won the support of 90 MPs (out of 128). In theory, he takes office with broader support than Mr Diab, who secured just 69 votes during consultations in December. The outgoing prime minister was blocked at every turn by MPs—not only from the opposition, but also his ostensible allies—who opposed his plans to clean up the banks and audit the public sector.For many, though, that very support makes Mr Adib suspect. A lawyer and academic by training, he is a political unknown but hardly an outsider: he was an adviser to Najib Mikati, a billionaire businessman who served two stints as prime minister and was charged last year with corruption linked to a subsidised housing scheme (he denies any wrongdoing). He won the backing of Saad Hariri, another ex-premier and the country’s leading Sunni politician; Hizbullah, the Iranian-backed Shia political party and militia; and Mr Aoun’s Christian allies. A man hand-picked by the political establishment is unlikely to demand that the establishment relinquish its grip on power.Even a genuine reformer would be overwhelmed by the scale of Lebanon’s problems. Its economy has collapsed. The currency has lost 80% of its value on the black market since October. Annual inflation hit 112% in July, up from 90% in June; food prices were up by 336%. The poverty rate climbed from 28% last year to 55% today.The central bank (the Banque du Liban or BdL) is down to about $19bn in foreign reserves, close to its minimum required position. Riad Salamé, the governor, says he may soon be unable to subsidise imports of food, fuel and medicine. Without a sudden influx of hard currency, the official currency peg could snap and the black-market rate would rise further, sending prices soaring. Without subsidies, bread that now goes for 2,000 pounds ($0.25) might fetch almost 10,000 pounds. A family earning the minimum wage would spend 89% of their monthly income just to buy two bags of flatbread each day.Talks with the IMF for a financial agreement worth up to $10bn have stalled. Talal Salman, the finance ministry official in charge of restructuring Lebanon’s debt, resigned on August 31st, the third high-level adviser to quit in recent months. Arab and Western states are unwilling to bail out Lebanon without serious reforms. The BdL, desperate for a short-term fix, has told banks to boost their capital by 20% before February or “exit the market”. In a directive issued on August 27th it told banks to urge wealthy depositors who had transferred large sums out of Lebanon to repatriate 15% of their money. “Do we plan to force people to recapitalise banks at gunpoint?” asked Jean Riachi, a banker.The crisis is so acute that covid-19 seems almost a tertiary concern. But the pandemic is getting worse as well. Cases soared to an all-time high after the explosion: Beirutis forgot about social distancing as they crowded into hospitals and cleared debris. More people died from the virus in August than in the previous six months combined. Yet a 17-day lockdown imposed on August 21st was cancelled after one week because of complaints from business owners.It is no surprise that Mr Macron sees an opportunity to wield influence in Lebanon. Traditional powers, such as America and Saudi Arabia, have stepped back: they are fed up with the country’s politics and preoccupied with their own. Many Lebanese feel a connection to their onetime ruler. Mr Macron received a jubilant welcome when he toured damaged areas of Beirut two days after the explosion.Still, French diplomats admit they have little leverage. Mr Macron hopes to charm and cajole Lebanon’s leaders into reform, with the prospect of aid if they comply. History suggests they will not. His call for early elections may not bring change either. Civil-society groups and protesters have not established credible parties, and the complex electoral law, which allocates seats based on sect, makes it hard for newcomers to win power. Far from changing Lebanon’s corrupt politics, Mr Macron may instead find that he has put his stamp on a government meant to preserve them.Reuse this contentThe Trust Project