Bahrain joins the UAE in recognising Israel
An old Arab orthodoxy is swiftly falling apart, but it may not change Israel’s oldest conflictIT TOOK 72 years for the first Gulf state to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. The second needed just four weeks. On September 11th President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that Bahrain would recognise Israel. Less than a month earlier, on August 13th, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reached a similar agreement with the Jewish state. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Abdullah bin Zayed, the Emirati foreign minister, had been due at the White House on September 15th for an official ceremony. The foreign minister of Bahrain will now join them.If the UAE’s decision came as a surprise, Bahrain’s was more predictable. Indeed, many observers had thought it would be the first Gulf state to recognise Israel. Their foreign ministers met publicly in Washington last year. Both countries regard Iran as a serious threat. Bahrain also sees ties with Israel as a way to boost its standing in Washington. The island kingdom relies on America for security (and hosts America’s Fifth Fleet).Even if it was expected, Bahrain’s announcement may prove more intriguing. The UAE did not have to worry about whether its decision would be popular: there is little space for dissent in the Emirates. Bahrain, on the other hand, has a history of protest. The Shia majority has long complained of discrimination at the hands of the Sunni royal family. Unrest peaked in 2011 during weeks of protests inspired by the Arab spring, which were crushed with the help of troops from other Gulf countries. Critics of normalisation with Israel have more room to express dissent in Bahrain—though they still face a ruthless state if they do.Another question is whether Bahrain serves as a trial balloon for its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia. Bahrain relies heavily on Saudi Arabia for political and economic support. Saudi tourists are a mainstay of the Bahraini economy; most of Bahrain’s oil revenue comes from a joint offshore field operated by Saudi Aramco. Bahrain would not have made such a big move without Saudi Arabia’s blessing. The Saudis are unlikely to follow suit, at least so long as King Salman is alive. But he is 84 and in ill health. Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince, is far less attached to the old Arab orthodoxy about Israel.As for the Palestinians, they are once again frustrated, though hardly surprised. In January, when Mr Trump unveiled a Middle East peace plan they saw as unfair—it allowed Israel to annex almost one-third of the occupied West Bank—Bahrain’s ambassador was in the audience. Last year the kingdom hosted a conference organised by Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and adviser, where attendees discussed fanciful plans to invest in the economy of a future Palestinian state. The Palestinians boycotted the event.In a region where diplomacy can move at a glacial pace, the past few weeks seem dizzying. Israeli tourists will soon descend on luxury hotels and beaches in Dubai and Manama. Israeli airliners can now overfly the Arabian peninsula instead of taking an hours-long detour around it. In the Palestinian territories, though, not much has changed. A half-century occupation continues. Gaza remains a miserable open-air prison. Israel suddenly finds itself more accepted in the region—but it is no closer to resolving the conflict on its doorstep.Reuse this contentThe Trust Project