Binyamin Netanyahu looks to have come out on top in Israel’s election
NEVER COUNT out Binyamin Netanyahu. For the past three decades that has been the cardinal rule of Israeli politics. And it was reinforced on March 2nd, when the 70-year-old prime minister seemed to pull off another electoral feat. The votes are still being counted, but Mr Netanyahu’s party, Likud, appears to have won the most seats in Israel’s parliamentary election—the third in less than a year. His right-wing coalition of nationalist and religious parties is close to having a governing majority. “He’s a magician,” chanted the crowd as Mr Netanyahu arrived at a rally in Tel Aviv.The previous two ballots, in April and September last year, failed to produce a government. There is no guarantee that this one will either, but Mr Netanyahu has momentum. When Likud was overtaken by Blue and White, its main rival, as the largest party in September, some wrote Mr Netanyahu’s political obituary. More earth was shovelled into his grave when, in November, the attorney-general indicted him for bribery and fraud. Mr Netanyahu, though, hung on, denying any wrongdoing. In December he soundly defeated a challenge to his leadership of Likud. Then he launched a blistering re-election campaign.Mr Netanyahu, who is already Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, had plenty to brag about on the stump. He has kept Israel secure, improved ties to Arab states and overseen a growing economy. What is more, President Donald Trump has given him a succession of political gifts: the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the isolation of the Palestinian Authority and, most recently, a peace plan that gives Mr Netanyahu almost everything he wants.Yet the prime minister’s campaign was defined by its dirtiness. Mr Netanyahu questioned the mental health of Benny Gantz, Blue and White’s leader and a former military chief of staff (appointed by Mr Netanyahu), and suggested that Mr Gantz had been blackmailed by the Iranians. The prime minister’s allies spread rumours that Mr Gantz had undergone psychological treatment; Mr Netanyahu’s son, Yair, tweeted about alleged infidelity by the candidate. “I have a bad sense, even a sense of shame, when facing you,” President Reuven Rivlin, a Likud member, told the public when casting his ballot. “We don’t deserve another terrible election campaign that declines to the point of filth.”But Mr Netanyahu also ran a data-based campaign, targeting micro-constituencies, such as Ethiopian and Russian-speaking immigrants, cab drivers and airline employees. He bombarded each with specific promises, such as telling cannabis-users that he would decriminalise the recreational use of the drug, and postponing a measure that would have made taxi fares more transparent.The result is a big disappointment for the opposition, led by Blue and White. Mr Gantz’s strategy was to appeal to “soft-right” voters fed up with Mr Netanyahu’s alleged corruption. But this made the party almost indistinguishable from Likud, and many voters stuck to the original. Blue and White appears to have done no better, and may have done worse, than in September, when it won 33 seats in the 120-member Knesset (Israel’s parliament). Left-wing parties suffered more. The coalition of Labour (which older Israelis remember as the party that built the country) with smaller left-wing factions, Gesher and Meretz, won just six or seven seats, down from 11 in September. Some of its voters appear to have thrown their support behind the Joint List, an alliance of Arab-majority parties which courted Jewish voters.The parties that oppose Mr Netanyahu appear to have won a small majority, but are divided. Right-wing members of Blue and White and the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party refuse to work with the Joint List. So Mr Netanyahu will probably be given the first chance to form a government—assuming the Supreme Court allows it. The court has been asked to decide whether Mr Rivlin can legally invite a politician under criminal indictment to form a government. It has avoided the question in the past, and may do so again this time. Mr Netanyahu claims the courts are politically biased. Were unelected judges to disqualify an elected leader it would only reinforce that claim.Even if he is given the green light, Mr Netanyahu still has work to do. His coalition looks to have won 59 seats, so he will need to peel off a couple of opposition members to form a majority. Alternatively he could cut a deal with Blue and White. During the campaign Mr Gantz ruled out serving under an indicted prime minister. But the disappointing result might soften his position. In his speech on election night, he did not repeat that stance, insisting only that the allegations against Mr Netanyahu be heard in court.Mr Netanyahu’s trial is due to begin on March 17th. There is still talk within his coalition of granting the prime minister retroactive immunity, but this seems unlikely to pass the Knesset (previous efforts came up short). Some in Likud have mooted firing the attorney-general, Avichai Mandelblit (a former cabinet secretary to Mr Netanyahu), who brought the charges. There is also a chance that Mr Netanyahu will use the election result to strengthen his position in negotiations over any plea bargain.The outcome also raises the question of annexation. Mr Netanyahu has promised to proceed with President Donald Trump’s peace plan, which allows Israel to apply sovereignty over large parts of the occupied West Bank, including the Jordan Valley. The Trump plan has been criticised by the Palestinians—and much of the rest of the world. In the past such opposition caused Mr Netanyahu to tread cautiously around annexation. But he has been working with the American administration to figure out how to move forward. He may feel that action needs to be taken while his trusted friend and ally, Mr Trump, is still certain to be in the White House. And becoming the man who brought more of the promised land under full Israeli control would make for an excellent campaign slogan in the unlikely case that a fourth election is required to break the deadlock.Reuse this contentThe Trust Project