Abe Shinzo resigns, leaving formidable problems for his successor
Japan’s new prime minister must grapple with huge debts, a shrinking population, an aggressive China and an unpredictable AmericaABE SHINZO announced his resignation at a press conference in Tokyo on August 28th, citing ill health. Japan’s prime minister will continue to carry out his duties until the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds a vote on a new leader. Earlier this week Mr Abe surpassed his great-uncle, Sato Eisaku, to became the longest-serving prime minister in a single stint since Japan established the role in the late 19th century (he was already the record-holder if you count his previous turn in the job, in 2006-07). His abrupt departure, more than a year before his third term as party leader was set to end, has thrust the country into a period of uncertainty.Concerns about Mr Abe’s health had proliferated following two hospital visits this month. Ulcerative colitis, a chronic intestinal disease, had helped end his first period as prime minister, after just over a year. (During flare-ups, some sufferers need to relieve themselves every ten minutes.) Nonetheless, his decision to step down came as a shock even to his closest associates. “I made my own decision without consulting with anyone,” Mr Abe said, citing a recurrence of the disease. His staff did not even have time to put his remarks onto a teleprompter.The selection of a successor will be an internal affair for the LDP. A leadership election is expected to be held in the coming weeks. The winner will remain in office until the end of Mr Abe’s term, before facing re-election as the party leader next September. The deputy prime minister, Aso Taro, and the chief cabinet secretary, Suga Yoshihide, two loyal lieutenants, are seen as possible transitional candidates to serve out the remainder of Mr Abe’s term.But that would only delay a bigger fight for leadership of the party and, given its hold on Japanese politics, the country. Ishiba Shigeru, a former defence and agriculture minister, is popular among voters and the LDP’s members, but not among its MPs. Kishida Fumio, the LDP policy chief, is said to be Mr Abe’s preferred candidate, but has thus far failed to inspire broader support. Kono Taro, the defence minister, and Motegi Toshimitsu, the foreign minister, are also possibilities. The contest will hinge on factional arithmetics and personalities, rather than policy.Mr Abe returned to the prime minister’s office in 2012 determined to revive Japan’s economy and its standing in the world. “Japan is back,” he declared in a speech in Washington, DC in 2013. During his nearly eight years in office, Mr Abe pursued a policy of monetary easing, fiscal expansion and structural reform that became known as “Abenomics”. That helped pull the economy out of deflation (though inflation never reached the Bank of Japan’s 2% target). Mr Abe also took on difficult reforms to reinvigorate the economy, exposing long-coddled farmers to more competition, for example, and admitting more immigrants to ease a labour shortage.Mr Abe beefed up Japan’s Self-Defence Forces, its armed forces in all but name, by expanding the defence budget and championing a law allowing the forces more leeway to operate beyond the country’s borders. He proved adept at managing Japan’s relations with America, especially after Donald Trump became president. Under his leadership, Japan emerged as a champion of free trade and multilateralism, inking an Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union, salvaging the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade accord after America pulled out and strengthening ties with allies in Asia to counter China’s rise. “He has been the senior statesman in our region and across the globe,” said Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, after Mr Abe announced his resignation.But Mr Abe will leave on a gloomy note. He had reckoned on a triumphant 2020: Japan was set to host the Olympic Games this summer and he looked poised to dictate the terms of his departure. Instead covid-19 put the Olympics on hold and sent the economy reeling. GDP shrank by a record 7.8% in the second quarter of this year compared with the first; in inflation-adjusted terms, economic output is lower than when Mr Abe became prime minister in 2012. As Mr Abe himself noted in his statement, he also leaves several important objectives unaccomplished: his lifelong goal of amending some pacifist clauses of the constitution America imposed on Japan after the second world war; resolving a long-running territorial dispute with Russia; and bringing back Japanese kidnapped by North Korea. Mr Abe’s critics would add that his efforts on structural reform, in particular digitalisation and making it easier for women to rise in business and government, have been patchy, and that he has downplayed Japan’s militarist past to the detriment of relations with South Korea.His successor’s immediate task will be managing the impact of covid-19. That may prove more straightforward than the long-term challenges he will inherit: a colossal public debt, a shrinking population, an aggressive neighbour in China and an unpredictable ally in America. Tackling them will be made easier by what may be Mr Abe’s most significant legacy: the centralisation of decision-making power in the prime minister’s office. Historically, long-serving Japanese prime ministers have been followed by strings of short-lived, unpopular governments. Japan cycled through six prime ministers in as many years (including Mr Abe’s first stint) before Mr Abe took over in 2012. Japan can ill afford another such bout of instability.Reuse this contentThe Trust Project